Credential · honest fail · 2026-08-09

S&P 500, Donchian 55-bar breakout

FAIL — published anyway

A track record judged by the MIZAN gate inside a zero-knowledge proof: returns after costs, the out-of-sample split and the overfitting corrections recomputed in-circuit, the strategy never revealed. Anyone can verify this credential offline. Every verdict on the registry is published, including this one.

Disclosed metrics
-0.77Sharpe
-0.31OOS Sharpe
-3.0%CAGR
-57.7%Net return
59.0%Max drawdown

Strategy-archetype sweep, one control asset: Donchian 55-bar breakout (the Turtle rule) on the S&P — refused. Sharpe 0 against the 1.20 bar. Twelve archetypes exercising every DSL feature — indicators, long/short, regime gates, vol targeting, ensembles, crash brakes, leverage — twelve refusals. The gate does not care how the strategy is shaped.

Verify it yourself

Download the bundle, run the verifier with the network off. The verdict recomputes on your machine in about 81 ms.

./mizan-verifier-v11-macos-arm64 arch_spy_turtle55_20260810.bundle spy.csv
The record
DatasetSPY · daily OHLC · 1997-12-31→2026-07-24 (7,184 bars) · published for offline verification
Minted (UTC)2026-08-09T00:00:00Z
VerdictFAIL — published anyway
Kindhonest_fail
Engine erav11 · both-schools validation-complete
Engine statuslive
Credential hashdffdadc3bdfcf4d3
Anchor SHA-256dffdadc3bdfcf4d31625500ea19a17f0b35e6176aba24e0480b8b62feae4de61
Timestamp (TSA)Aug 10 08:55:11 2026 GMT
Bitcoin / OTSpending confirmation
Data rootd05c76d2fb0724d3977ece83c8473b68926d5b2fad835f426a3c243eff8c8713
Registry leafd48d96db4c44e708ba92cb3ef881e389122ad1b49c1d723a83bec450ec344796
Leaf index66
Registry rootf878bf4d24bda7d7e90d09c9345418b9c77ec4ac866df57ac76eff8ee44c5f26
Proof size220 KB
IssuerMIZAN

What a verdict means: what a PASS asserts · what we refuse to certify · reading a verdict · the VTR-1 standard.