Credential · honest fail · 2026-08-09

S&P 500, Donchian 20-bar breakout

FAIL — published anyway

A track record judged by the MIZAN gate inside a zero-knowledge proof: returns after costs, the out-of-sample split and the overfitting corrections recomputed in-circuit, the strategy never revealed. Anyone can verify this credential offline. Every verdict on the registry is published, including this one.

Disclosed metrics
-0.93Sharpe
-0.35OOS Sharpe
-4.5%CAGR
-73.3%Net return
74.4%Max drawdown

Strategy-archetype sweep, one control asset: Donchian 20-bar breakout (fast channel breakout) on the S&P — refused. Sharpe 0 against the 1.20 bar. Twelve archetypes exercising every DSL feature — indicators, long/short, regime gates, vol targeting, ensembles, crash brakes, leverage — twelve refusals. The gate does not care how the strategy is shaped.

Verify it yourself

Download the bundle, run the verifier with the network off. The verdict recomputes on your machine in about 81 ms.

./mizan-verifier-v11-macos-arm64 arch_spy_breakout20_20260810.bundle spy.csv
The record
DatasetSPY · daily OHLC · 1997-12-31→2026-07-24 (7,184 bars) · published for offline verification
Minted (UTC)2026-08-09T00:00:00Z
VerdictFAIL — published anyway
Kindhonest_fail
Engine erav11 · both-schools validation-complete
Engine statuslive
Credential hashce20c4e49ccec412
Anchor SHA-256ce20c4e49ccec412d696eab49effd9dd2c875ee3dfd1ea41f236dc6c1fbfb0d8
Timestamp (TSA)Aug 10 08:54:41 2026 GMT
Bitcoin / OTSpending confirmation
Data rootd05c76d2fb0724d3977ece83c8473b68926d5b2fad835f426a3c243eff8c8713
Registry leaf6bcc08eb9740f9583e994a6d1b0a150d4daba6bf5d037dc4451e8901355ff637
Leaf index34
Registry rootf878bf4d24bda7d7e90d09c9345418b9c77ec4ac866df57ac76eff8ee44c5f26
Proof size220 KB
IssuerMIZAN

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