Credential · honest fail · 2026-07-28

the gate refused its maker

FAIL · SharpeTooLow · CagrTooLow · WalkForwardFailed — published anyway

A track record judged by the MIZAN gate inside a zero-knowledge proof: returns after costs, the out-of-sample split and the overfitting corrections recomputed in-circuit, the strategy never revealed. Anyone can verify this credential offline. Every verdict on the registry is published, including this one.

Disclosed metrics
0.41Sharpe
0.49OOS Sharpe
3.3%CAGR
+155.8%Net return
21.1%Max drawdown
-8.9%Worst bar
89Trades
44.0%Independence
0.16Calmar

First proof ever minted on the licensed survivorship-free data substrate — and it is a refusal: our own trend engine on the S&P 500, refused by our own gate (Sharpe 0.41 vs the 1.20 bar) over 28.5 years of survivorship-free data. The first mint attempt was ALSO refused — the verifier rejected our mis-declared annualization basis (C1). The machine caught its own operator twice in one day; that is the product. Full story: mizan.market/research/the-gate-refused-its-maker

Verify it yourself

Download the bundle, run the verifier with the network off. The verdict recomputes on your machine in about 81 ms.

./verifier-v11 honest_fail_SPY_trend_20260728.bundle spy.csv
The record
DatasetSPY · daily OHLC · our US equity feed (1997→2026, 7,184 bars)
Minted (UTC)2026-07-28T00:30:00Z
VerdictFAIL · SharpeTooLow · CagrTooLow · WalkForwardFailed — published anyway
Kindhonest_fail
Engine erav11 · both-schools validation-complete
Engine statuslive
Credential hash9ee859fa30d1a9e1
Anchor SHA-2569ee859fa30d1a9e1474e6d15f812fc537df6b5fb24bede4cb36e4c462a6578df
Bitcoin / OTSpending confirmation
Registry leaf5abdcedecd72a4369ac14b3395cfff5a3b49021daca4c7cd0323bf515fe68d11
Leaf index26
Registry rootf878bf4d24bda7d7e90d09c9345418b9c77ec4ac866df57ac76eff8ee44c5f26
Proof size220 KB
IssuerMIZAN

What a verdict means: what a PASS asserts · what we refuse to certify · reading a verdict · the VTR-1 standard.