Credential · honest fail · 2026-08-04

Apple, buy-and-hold (1997→2026) [SUPERSEDED]

FAIL · SharpeTooLow · DrawdownTooHigh · WorstBarTooLow · TooFewTrades — published anyway

A track record judged by the MIZAN gate inside a zero-knowledge proof: returns after costs, the out-of-sample split and the overfitting corrections recomputed in-circuit, the strategy never revealed. Anyone can verify this credential offline. Every verdict on the registry is published, including this one.

Disclosed metrics
0.89Sharpe
0.95OOS Sharpe
32.0%CAGR
+272,549.0%Net return
82.4%Max drawdown
-52.7%Worst bar
1Trades
1.0%Independence
0.39Calmar

The greatest stock of the era, held for 28.5 years: +272,548% net, CAGR 32% — and the gate still refuses it. Sharpe 0.89 vs the 1.20 bar, an 82% drawdown, a −52.66% single bar (the 2000 crash), and one trade. A story is not an edge; the gate prices the ride, not the destination. Survival analysis of 9 famous tickers: mizan.market/survival ERRATUM 2026-08-08: this credential declared 252 periods/year where the committed window supports 251 (7,184 bars over 28.6 calendar years), so it fails the verifier's C1 annualization bound. No metric and no verdict changed. It remains verifiable forever and is superseded by legend-aapl-buyhold, re-minted at 251.

Verify it yourself

Download the bundle, run the verifier with the network off. The verdict recomputes on your machine in about 81 ms.

./mizan-verifier-v11-macos-arm64 honest_fail_AAPL_buyhold_20260804.bundle aapl.csv
The record
DatasetAAPL · daily OHLC · survivorship-free US feed (1997→2026, 7,184 bars)
Minted (UTC)2026-08-04T11:45:00Z
VerdictFAIL · SharpeTooLow · DrawdownTooHigh · WorstBarTooLow · TooFewTrades — published anyway
Kindhonest_fail
Engine erav11 · both-schools validation-complete
Engine statuslive
Credential hashd02fcd3ac8393745
Anchor SHA-256d02fcd3ac8393745e1c6c83136af471b59e7486d11c585f8718ae2e03393bbd9
Timestamp (TSA)Aug 4 11:53:31 2026 GMT
Bitcoin / OTSpending confirmation
Registry leafbe7ae14329b6d1c0a600a6a492258eb1a46fa89e3653153f91953e740f0d3f83
Leaf index58
Registry rootf878bf4d24bda7d7e90d09c9345418b9c77ec4ac866df57ac76eff8ee44c5f26
Proof size220 KB
IssuerMIZAN

What a verdict means: what a PASS asserts · what we refuse to certify · reading a verdict · the VTR-1 standard.