Credential · honest fail · 2026-08-09

S&P 500, crash-braked trend

FAIL — published anyway

A track record judged by the MIZAN gate inside a zero-knowledge proof: returns after costs, the out-of-sample split and the overfitting corrections recomputed in-circuit, the strategy never revealed. Anyone can verify this credential offline. Every verdict on the registry is published, including this one.

Disclosed metrics
0.69Sharpe
0.77OOS Sharpe
8.1%CAGR
+818.9%Net return
22.5%Max drawdown

Strategy-archetype sweep, one control asset: crash-braked trend (de-levers on vol spike or 10% drop) on the S&P — refused. Sharpe 0 against the 1.20 bar. Twelve archetypes exercising every DSL feature — indicators, long/short, regime gates, vol targeting, ensembles, crash brakes, leverage — twelve refusals. The gate does not care how the strategy is shaped.

Verify it yourself

Download the bundle, run the verifier with the network off. The verdict recomputes on your machine in about 81 ms.

./mizan-verifier-v11-macos-arm64 arch_spy_crashbrake_20260810.bundle spy.csv
The record
DatasetSPY · daily OHLC · 1997-12-31→2026-07-24 (7,184 bars) · published for offline verification
Minted (UTC)2026-08-09T00:00:00Z
VerdictFAIL — published anyway
Kindhonest_fail
Engine erav11 · both-schools validation-complete
Engine statuslive
Credential hash83eb93f18bfadae3
Anchor SHA-25683eb93f18bfadae32f63f298ae091efa91f59cd153e7228c06dc096bd2fdc585
Timestamp (TSA)Aug 10 08:54:45 2026 GMT
Bitcoin / OTSpending confirmation
Data rootd05c76d2fb0724d3977ece83c8473b68926d5b2fad835f426a3c243eff8c8713
Registry leafa1af98bc8a950bbf63201c2877d2d509d7c2f0b80b8912980a613aed0f5be39a
Leaf index52
Registry rootf878bf4d24bda7d7e90d09c9345418b9c77ec4ac866df57ac76eff8ee44c5f26
Proof size220 KB
IssuerMIZAN

What a verdict means: what a PASS asserts · what we refuse to certify · reading a verdict · the VTR-1 standard.